Prices

A price on Conviction is a probability. If an outcome's price is 0.65, the market sees a 65% chance of that thing happening.

#A value between 0 and 1

• A price is a value between 0 and 1.
• 0.5 = "even odds (50%)".
• The closer to 1, the more confident the market is in that outcome.
• For readability, the UI also shows it as a % (× 100) — 0.65 ↔ 65%.

#How price relates to settlement

At settlement, one share is worth 1 USDT if it wins and 0 USDT if it loses. So:

• An outcome bought at 0.65 that wins → settles at 1 USDT (+0.35 profit per share)
• An outcome bought at 0.65 that loses → 0 USDT (-0.65 loss per share)

In other words, the lower the price, the smaller the stake for a bigger payoff; the higher the price, the safer the bet but the smaller the upside.

#YES price + NO price

For the same market, the YES price and NO price add up to roughly 1. If YES is 0.65, then NO is around 0.35. When one rises, the other falls.

#Next concepts

• Fees — where fees are deducted when trading
• Resolution — how a price is finalized to 1 or 0